BUILDING A BETTER DISTRICTInformation | Communication | Transparency | Accountability |
A Movement By Citizens Demanding Transparency, Accountability, and Community Engagement of Central CUSD301 in Burlington, Illinois.
Building A Better District is a citizen-led movement in Kane County, Illinois, and is not affiliated with, nor endorsed by, CCUSD301 administration or Board of Education.
When we talk about growth it should be noted that this relates to NEW students to the district as a result of NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION ONLY. Homes already completed in our district should have been accounted for in any district calculations using their Student Yield Factor of .8. Read more on Student Yield Factor.
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To truly see where we are receiving NEW students, it is necessary to compare last year's "Rising Students" to this year's Actual students by grade level. Rising students mean those students from last year that moved UP a grade this year. We've done an analysis on the overall numbers and then took it by elementary, middle, and high school using the district's December 2023 Enrollment Report. Here is an example of how we used the data in the various charts on this page:
From the chart to the right you can see from 2022-2023 to 2023-2024 we had:
For a total of 244 added students - 160 of which entered the district at the Kindergarten level. What we cannot verify is how many of these students are the result of new construction. This would be a factor a demography firm would be able to identify using data from the district and the county. |
Lets take a deeper look into rising Elementary numbers from last school year to this school year. In this chart you can see we gained:
| SOURCE: D301 December 2023 Enrollment Forecast |
The elementary school is at 3.2% growth in terms of additional students year over year. The entry of Kindergarten students into the system may not constitute NEW students to the district, but rather children in homes that should already be included in the district's ".8" Student Yield Factor that have reached the age of compulsory school enrollment. In other words, it is highly unlikely that we had 160 kindergarten-aged students move into our district since last year given the decline in new home construction and sales in 2023. Because of these issues, the "growth" rate excludes the 160 new enrollments from EC to KDG.
Let's look into rising Middle School numbers from last year to this school year. In this chart you can see we gained:
| SOURCE: D301 December 2023 Enrollment Forecast |
This reflects a total of 25 NEW students in grades 6 through 8 for a growth rate of 2.1% in NEW students year over year.
Now let's look into rising High School numbers from last year to this school year. In this chart you can see we gained:
| SOURCE: D301 December 2023 Enrollment Forecast |
This reflects a total of net 2 students in grades 9 through 12 for a growth rate of .1% in NEW students year over year.
These analyses confirm our statement that growth is always going to impact our district in the elementary schools FIRST. Because the size of the pipeline changes as kids move out of 5th grade into 6th and beyond, the full force of elementary is slowed down as they students progress.
This analysis also reinforces what research shows: the majority of parents do not move their kids while they are in high school for sports, social, and other reasons.
Our current largest 4-grade cohort is the current 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th graders. Taken together, these grades total 1,596 students at this time. Applying the growth rates shown above to this figure sees this group grow to 1,632 in 2026. With Central High School at a new capacity of 1,900 in fall 2024, we should have plenty of classroom space to accommodate high school students. Following this cohort, the next block is 1,577 -- slightly smaller than our largest cohort. Behind that the cohort is 1,551. This accordion affect is normal with grades moving through the district pipeline. Slow growth rates mean slow compression in the high school with room for 1,900 students.
LIVE BIRTH RATES & OVERALL COUNTY POPULATION DECLINE The "live birth rate" in Kane County is declining overall and has been on a downward trend for the last several years. This means a lower number of children in our county is expected. (See St. Charles/D303 2023 Report on Kane County factors on enrollment). Kane County's population is declining on an annual basis. This trend continues as people leave Illinois for states with lower taxes. LOWER STUDENT YIELD NUMBERS Kane County is seeing a lower number of children per home overall when people do move here. This also has been trending downward for the last several years. AGING IN PLACE As we look towards future years there is a factor called "aging in place" that comes into play. These are homes where district students have graduated from high school and the parents remain in the home--"aging in place", but that home no longer has students attending the district. These homes no longer affect total enrollment and even when they are resold, their home and it's contribution to Student Yield Factor are already included in the total enrollment of the district. | SIZE OF RISING GRADES As new growth materializes, it is clear the growth will show up in the elementary school first, with kindergarten being the most impacted. Using the right formulas to figure out how to capture all of these factors and pull them into a projection is something that should be done by a professional demography firm, not the district administration. STALLED NEW CONSTRUCTION Our research has shown several developments that were slated for development will not be developed anytime soon. Also, Kane County's own EAV analysis for 2023 show new construction is down 16.7% over last year. The rapid growth seen through 2021 is over. FUTURE GROWTH PLATEAU Eventually, growth in the district will plateau and the elementary schools will begin to see attrition in total enrollment which will work its way through the middle and high schools. The question no one can answer is when that plateau may occur. |
Please note we have created very simple data models. Enrollment forecasting has many factors and variables and requires the work of a professional demography firm to provide short-term (1-5 years) and middle-term (5-10 years) projections for future planning. It requires the incorporation of:
Such analyses helps districts create a phased approach to growth, addressing growth where it is happening, when it is happening, allowing for checks along the way to see if the district is on track with projected growth trends to avoid building unnecessary schools that will not be maximized in the future.
Our Board of Education must perform their fiduciary duty and appropriate due diligence by directing the district to commission an independent Enrollment Forecast & Facilities Analysis of Central CUSD 301 before moving forward with another referendum.